Research

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8377-556X

PUBLICATIONS:

4. Economic Uncertainty and Credit Risk: Evidence from International Corporate Bonds (with P. Valenzuela & J. Clavería) Economics Letters. 2024. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176524001496

The working paper version is available at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4712125 

3. Corporate taxes, partisan politics, and stock returns. North American Journal of Economics and Finance. 2024.

Free access: https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1ij9R3nhqoErUz

The working paper version is available at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4397879

2. The value relevance of corporate tax expenses in the presence of partisanship: International evidence. (with P. Ostad) Global Finance Journal. 2023. 100832. https://authors.elsevier.com/sd/article/S1044-0283(23)00027-3

1. Decision making on the Go: Smart Phones and Decision making in the early 21st century workflow (with Guha, Rahim, and Simmonds). Business Information Review. 2019. V36-4. 164-177 (SCOPUS, Q1) https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0266382119887672

WORKING PAPERS:

5. A risk-based perspective on the presidential puzzle (previously called Political cycle and asset pricing) https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3634183

This paper investigates the presidential puzzle (Santa-Clara and Valkanov, 2003) — the fact that the equity premium is 10% higher in years with Democratic governments than in years with Republican governments. I find the existence of a negative price reaction after Democratic victories in presidential elections. I also establish that the difference in the equity premium is significant only in the first year of the presidential cycle and that there is a negative equity premium in the fourth year of the cycle when the incumbent Republican loses the election. Moreover, the market reaction to changes in the likelihood of a candidate winning the election significantly differs for Republican and Democratic candidates. The evidence is consistent with a risk explanation and policy uncertainty.

4. Partisan politics and stock returns under strong presidential regimes https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4012097

I study the effect of partisan politics on stock returns in Latin America. There is a negative market reaction when left-wing parties win presidential elections. However, the observed democratic premium in the U.S. is not observed. Firms have higher returns when the president is from a Centrist party. The Christian-Secular dimension is analyzed; firms have higher returns when the president is from a Christian party, and the market reaction is higher the day after the candidate from the Christian party wins. Results are consistent with Christian-party-led governments providing a low-risk and high profitability environment and stock market underreaction.

3. Volatility and the Political Cycle (with S. Guha)

2. Equity vs. Debt: Examining Financing Choices after Corporate Divestitures (with S. Chen, S. Guha, & T. Haque) (under review)

1. Bull and Bear Regime Timings: Analysis of Equity Markets and Cryptocurrency Assets (with Abugri, Anand, and Dutta)

SELECTED WORK IN PROGRESS:

3. Political cycles and corporate bond returns (with Y. Guo)

2. Teaching finance with Python (with S. Cea & J. Roman)

1. Economic Determinants of Bitcoin Mining Location (with A.Lopez & S. Guha)